Optimus Robots Could Make Tesla a $25 Trillion Company

Optimus humanoid robots could eventually make the automaker worth $25 Trillion.

Image credits: Tesla

Elon Musk said humanoid robots could make Tesla worth as much as a quarter of today’s global GDP. Tesla boss said he is “pathologically optimistic.” He has promised everything from armadas of autonomous taxis to rapidly overtaking Toyota Motor’s, production levels. More prosaically, he has been too sunny about the timeline to produce cheap, long-range or bigger electric cars.

Luckily for Musk, investors don't grade him straight line. According to Visible Alpha, Tesla is trading at 76 times projected earnings for the upcoming 12 months compared to Ford Motor’s. It's obvious that his business entails more than just manufacturing cars.

Speaking to a crowd consisting mostly of fawning fanboys in an auditorium at the Gigafactory, Musk promised Tesla would move into “limited production” of Optimus in 2025 and test out humanoid robots in its own factories next year.

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Musk also said that Tesla is not just a car company. He said, “Tesla also writes a lot of software that helps what like we call the Tesla operating system internally. That is Head and Shoulder above what any other company has I think. The Tesla internal software is just way better. So…yeah it’s just far more than what people normally think of as a car company.”

But his most recent formula is a true puzzler. Last week, Elon Musk made a prediction stating that 10% of the market will be occupied by Tesla's Optimus and that eventually, 10 billion people on Earth would desire at least one robot, with 1 billion being produced annually. According to his theorem, charging $20,000 would result in $10,000 in profit per person, or $1 trillion yearly, reports Reuters.

For a product this commoditized, the margin would be substantial. Musk did, at least, lower his target valuation to 20 times, but even so, it still amounts to $20 trillion in market value from robots, not to mention an additional $5 trillion estimated worth for self-driving taxis. The International Monetary Fund estimates that Tesla's profits from robotics alone accounted for 1% of the global economy last year, while Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company, is expected to make up just 0.1% of this year's total.

Musk's practice in multiplication resulted in subtraction. The day following his address at the annual meeting, Tesla's market value dropped by two percent. There is a pattern: every time he updates the market on Optimus, the stock either declines or hardly moves.

He said that, when it comes to humanoid robots, other companies, including tech startups, are going after the market. Competitors include Boston Dynamics, Agility, Neura and Apptronik.

“What really matters is, can we be much faster than everyone else and our product be done a few years before theirs and be better,” Musk said.

Sam Draper
July 1, 2024

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